聽is a PhD Candidate in Political Science at聽.
It increasingly seems that projections of election results based on public polling are unreliable. The 2022 midterm elections in the United States are a prime example.
Americans appeared set to vote Republican en masse 鈥� in a so-called 鈥淩ed Wave鈥� 鈥� on the morning of Nov. 8.
Amid , a perfect storm was brewing. Polls suggested a huge Republican win was imminent and the party was poised to secure control of the House and the Senate with a sizeable majority.
We now know those predictions did not materialize. . Republican results were lacklustre at best.
Youth voters have been hailed as the catalyst that turned the .鈥� cast a ballot 鈥� the second highest youth voter turnout in nearly 30 years. Further still, roughly 63 per cent of youth voters backed Democratic candidates 鈥� the only age group in which a strong majority supported Democrats.
The reality of election results and the glaring absence of youth voter impact on projections begs the question: are we accurately capturing public opinion?
What went wrong for pollsters
Historically, there are two methods determining election result projections: based on trends and political theory or probability sampling. Regardless of the framework, these predictions rely on one thing: accurately representing public opinion.
Though voting methods have slowly begun to adapt to the technological societal shift, , public opinion polling remains rooted in the past.
Despite its vital importance to determining election forecasts, the presidential approval rating is Similarly, while probability sampling often relies on aggregating data from several sources, .
Pop culture is ripe with anecdotes of people ignoring 鈥渃old calls,鈥� yet public polling efforts continue to engage 鈥� or, rather, disengage 鈥� youth voters by failing to understand where they spend their time online.
